This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Key Takeaways
- Presidential: Sanders out
- Libertarian: Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI) hints at candidacy
- GA-Sen: polling info
- MI-Sen: competing polls - challenger outraises incumbent
- MA-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey’s (D) qualification trouble
- MI-13: Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D) polling tightens
- NY-14: Rep. Ocascio-Cortez’s (D) opponent tops $1 million
- Primaries Moving: GA; ME; NJ; PR; VA
President
Sen. Bernie Sanders: Effectively ending Democratic nomination competition, this week Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) announced that he is suspending his campaign meaning that former Vice President Joe Biden will become his party’s presidential standard bearer. We now can expect Mr. Biden’s first ballot nomination to become official in terms of bound first ballot delegate votes once the June 2nd primaries are complete.
Rep. Justin Amash (I): Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI), who last year left the Republican Party to become an Independent, is leaving hints that he may be planning a run for the Libertarian Presidential nomination. His latest tweet saying, “Trump versus Biden is not the contest America deserves or the one it needs right now,” suggests he may think the idea of offering himself as a third alternative is becoming more plausible.
America First PAC: With the general election campaign now set between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, and early April polling showing a ballot test margin range of Trump +2 to Biden +11, nationally, the America First PAC, which is a major Super PAC supporting President Trump, has announced it will spend $26.6 million in media advertising for Florida and North Carolina between Labor Day and Election Day, in addition to reserving $10 million in media markets within the three Great Lakes States of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. We can be assured this is just the beginning of the general election media wars.
Wisconsin: When the US Supreme Court ruled that the Wisconsin absentee ballot deadline could not be extended, thus reversing a lower court ruling, the SCOTUS surprisingly left in place a provision from the original directive that mandated county clerks not release their vote totals until April 13th. Therefore, we will have to wait until Monday to see if former Vice President Joe Biden or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) claimed the lion’s share of the state’s 84 bound first ballot Democratic National Convention delegates. With Sen. Sanders deciding to concede the nomination, however, the Wisconsin result becomes anti-climactic.
Senate
Georgia: The Battleground Connect consulting firm again tested the Georgia electorate (3/31-4/1; 1,035 GA likely general election voters; live interview) for the special US Senate election coming in November. Controversy surrounds appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) for her recent stock transactions, which show her selling $18.7 million in stocks prior to the market crash and investing in a company that produces COVID-19 related protection items, all presumably after receiving Senate briefings about the deadly virus. Though Ms. Loeffler maintains a third party handles her wide-ranging investments, the polls suggest that the general public does not buy her explanation.
According to the latest results, Sen. Loeffler drops even further behind GOP Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) than Battleground’s March 24th survey depicted. Now, Mr. Collins tops the jungle primary field with 36%, followed by Rev. Raphael Warnock’s 16%. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already endorsed Rev. Warnock. Ms. Loeffler then records 13%, ahead of Democratic businessman Matt Lieberman (11%) and former US Attorney Ed Tarver (D) who posts only a 3% preference factor.
Massachusetts: Reports coming from Sen. Ed Markey’s Democratic primary against Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) find that the incumbent’s campaign is approximately 3,000 petition signatures from obtaining the minimum 10,000 in order to qualify for the ballot. With the Coronavirus making door to door approaches impossible, the Markey campaign has switched to making an online appeal and sending the proper forms through the mail to those who respond.
Rep. Kennedy’s campaign reports that they are well over the minimum amount required. The signature petition deadline is May 5th, so the Markey campaign still has time to qualify and its spokesman said the operation is confident they will meet the goal.
Michigan: The progressive left group Progress Michigan announced they will be conducting monthly polls of the state’s electorate covering both the presidential and US Senate race. In this month’s Public Policy Polling survey (3/31-4/1; 1,019 MI registered voters via telephone interview and text), Sen. Gary Peters (D) has expanded his lead over consensus Republican challenger John James to 45-38%. The Spry Strategies organization also surveyed the during virtually the same time period (3/30-4/1; 602 MI likely general election voters) and found a much closer result. The Spry data finds Sen. Peters’ lead to be only two percentage points, 42-40%.
For the second consecutive quarter, Republican challenger James has outraised Sen. Peters, though both had strong performances. For the period ending March 31st, Mr. James will report receipts of $4.8 million, approximately $800,000 more than the incumbent during the same period.
New Hampshire: Former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien (R) has ended his US Senate bid and endorsed wealthy attorney Corky Messner (R) against incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) remains in the race but is at a major financial disadvantage against Mr. Messner who has the ability to self-fund his campaign. The New Hampshire primary is not until September 8th, so this race still has much time to develop. Sen. Shaheen is a strong favorite in the November general election.
House
MI-13: Recently, we reported that Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones (D), who served briefly in Congress after winning a special election to succeed resigned Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) but fell to current Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) in the regular election, is returning this year for a re-match. A new Target-Insyght poll (3/31-4/2; 500 MI-13 likely voters) suggests a competitive Democratic primary is forming with Ms. Jones having some momentum.
According to the T-I results, Rep. Tlaib’s lead over Ms. Jones is 43-34%, considerably different than the 56-19% spread the research organization published in June of 2019. It is being reported, however, that Ms. Jones just tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. It is unclear just how the diagnosis will change the Jones’ campaign effort.
NH-1: In the district that has defeated more incumbents than any seat in the nation since 2004, state Rep. William Fowler (R) announced that he will not file for Congress and instead endorsed former White House aide and NH Republican Party executive director Matt Mowers for the GOP nomination. The September 8th primary is shaping up as a battle between Mr. Mowers and former Dover City Councilman and ex-NH Republican Party Vice Chairman Matt Mayberry. The winner faces freshman Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester).
NJ-3: Responding to news that a large percentage of his ballot petition signatures were ruled invalid, Barnegat Township Mayor John Novak announced that he is dropping out of the race. In his exiting statement, Mr. Novak made a public endorsement for venture capitalist David Richter, who most of the local party establishment is supporting. The winner of the Republican primary race between he and former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs will challenge freshman Rep. Andy Kim (D-Bordentown) in the general election.
NY-14: Yesterday, former CNBC news anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera (D) announced that she had raised over $1 million in just 47 days since her official challenge to noted New York freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez (D-Bronx) began. Ms. Caruso-Cabrera says she will report approximately $800,000 cash-on-hand.
Rep. Ocascio-Cortez, however, even at the end of 2019, had almost $3 million at her disposal. The Chamber of Commerce also announced an endorsement of Ms. Caruso-Cabrera. Though we will see substantial spending between now and the June 23rd primary, it is unclear just how vulnerable Rep. Ocascio-Cortez may be within her own party.
TX-24: Retired Air Force Colonel and former statewide Democratic nominee Kim Olson and local School Board member Candace Valenzuela look to be in a competitive Democratic congressional runoff now set for July 14th. Last week, former Housing & Urban Development Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Julian Castro endorsed Ms. Valenzuela in an effort to “unite Hispanics behind her candidacy.” Yesterday, both candidates released their post-primary report fundraising numbers and we see a competitive dollar battle here, too. Ms. Olson has accumulated $370,000 while Ms. Valenzuela had collected $305,000 during the same period.
WA-10: Washington Rep. Denny Heck (D-Olympia), who earlier in the year said he would not seek a fifth term in the House because he is frustrated with the federal process, announced late this week that he will enter this year’s race for Lt. Governor. Incumbent Cyrus Habib (D) has already said he will be retiring from office, thus opening the statewide position. Immediately after the Heck declaration, Mr. Habib formally endorsed state Senate Majority Leader Marko Liias (D-Lynnwood), suggesting that Rep. Heck faces a competitive statewide primary campaign to be settled on August 4th.
Governor
Georgia: Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) announced that the Georgia primary will be moving from May 19th to June 9th as part of the state’s Coronavirus emergency precaution plan. The election methodology of having in-person and absentee mail voting will continue to be in place.
Maine: Gov. Janet Mills (D) indicated this week that she does not believe it possible that the June 9th primary will be conducted as scheduled. She is considering moving the election to July 14th. Under Maine election law, the Governor has the sole power to move an election date.
Montana: Late last month, Gov. Steve Bullock (D) ruled that each of Montana’s counties could conduct the June 2nd statewide primary solely by mail if they so desired. This week, a report was released indicating that election officials in all of the state’s 56 counties have selected the mail option, meaning that the June 2nd primary vote will be conducted entirely through the postal system.
New Jersey: Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has followed through on previous reports that he was considering moving the June 2nd primary. Late this week, the Governor confirmed the New Jersey partisan primary election will now take place on July 7th. States with later primaries now have more leeway in transferring their nominating elections since the Democratic National Convention has moved to August 17-20.
Puerto Rico: Puerto Rico Democrats have announced that the territory’s presidential primary has again been delayed. Originally scheduled for March 29, the legislature moved the election to April 26th. The legislative action, which included an option to allow party leaders to transfer the date to an even later time, looks to be exercised. The Democratic Party leaders announced that they will suspend the 4/26 vote indefinitely. Now that former Vice President Joe Biden has effectively become the party nominee, it may not even be necessary to hold this primary.
Virginia: Gov. Ralph Northam (D) has issued a stay at home order longer than any other state chief executive, wanting people to remain in their residences until June 10th. This is one day after the Virginia state primary, and Republicans around the state were accusing the Governor of choosing that deadline to drive GOP turnout down which, they think Northam believes, would result in producing the most extreme nominee up and down the ballot thus giving Democrats a further advantage in the general election. On Wednesday, Gov. Northam changed the primary date, and now Virginians, in districts with primaries, will vote on June 23rd.