This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Senate

The first two Florida Senate polls pitting Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and Gov. Rick Scott (R) against each other were released during the week. The University of Northern Florida conducted the poll (2/16-26; 973 "completed surveys") and it finds Sen. Nelson leading the Governor, 44-38%. Mr. Scott, ineligible to seek re-election, has mentioned on several occasions that he is considering challenging Sen. Nelson. The poll is flawed in that the sampling group respondents were categorized as "completed surveys", not disclosing whether the participants are adults, registered voters, or likely voters.

Professional pollster Mason-Dixon Polling & Research also tested the race, however, and drew a similar conclusion. The survey (2/24-28; 625 FL registered voters) finds Sen. Nelson ahead by a 46-41% clip. Should Gov. Scott enter the Senate race, we could well again see a very tight finish in what has become America's quintessential political swing state.

Newly elected Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) confirms that he will not challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) next year. Originally, it appeared that Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin) would run for Senate, but such may not be now the case. At this point in time no Republican has announced his or her candidacy. Sen. McCaskill is viewed as being one of the more vulnerable Democratic members seeking re-election next year.

House

Democrats and Republicans met in party conventions over the weekend to choose special election nominees to replace Montana at-large Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish), now that the latter is confirmed as Interior Secretary. As expected, former gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte won on the first ballot at the Republican event, while the Democrats produced a surprise. Local Montana musician Rob Quist upset ex-US Senate nominee Amanda Curtis, thus giving Democrats a different perspective in the special election.

The majority of delegates simply believed that Mr. Quist was the more electable candidate, according to post-convention interviews. Responding to the fact that the last two Montana Representatives have only served one term apiece, Mr. Gianforte told the GOP state committee members that he will seek re-election in 2018 if he wins the special election. The Republicans are favored to hold the seat on May 25th, but the Quist nomination might make this race a bit more interesting.

A new Trafalgar Group survey (3/2-3; 450+ GA-6 likely special election voters) tested the northern Georgia special congressional election and found no clear leader among the crowded field of candidates. Democratic investigative filmmaker Jon Ossoff and Republican former Secretary of State Karen Handel are within half a percentage point of each other. No individual reaches 20% preference, but the six tested Republicans combine for almost 45% respondent support. The two Democrats only touch 21%. Mr. Ossoff began a major television ad blitz in anticipation of the April 18th jungle primary.

Governor

Former US Interior Secretary and Senator Ken Salazar (D) confirms he is considering entering the open Colorado Governor's campaign and will decide whether to run in the next several weeks. Mr. Salazar was elected to the Senate in 2004 after serving as Colorado Attorney General. He was tabbed by President Obama to join the cabinet in 2009. He left the Administration at the beginning of Mr. Obama's second term.

Democratic pollster Anzalone Liszt Grove Research tested Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) for the American Heart Association. In their gubernatorial polling question (2/15-20; 800 IL registered voters), the respondents were asked whether they would back Gov. Rauner for re-election, or an unnamed Democrat. The latter choice prevailed, 47-32%. This is not particularly surprising given the state's strong Democratic voting trend, and that politicians tend to perform worse against a placebo party figure than an actual live opponent.

Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato), who just barely survived a 2016 re-election scare with a scant 50.3% victory, is looking at the open gubernatorial race next year. Already there is a crowded field of Democrats seeking the position and the group is expected to enlarge. State Auditor Rebecca Otto, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, and state Rep. Erin Murphy are all announced gubernatorial candidates. Potential contenders include Rep. Walz, Lt. Gov. Tina Smith, Attorney General Lori Swanson, US Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Crosby/Duluth), and former Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak. Incumbent Mark Dayton (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Former Ohio US Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley) announced that she will enter the state's open Governor's race next year. Ms. Sutton served three terms in the House before losing to Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) when the two were paired in one district under the 2011 redistricting plan. The state lost two seats in the 2010 reapportionment. After her defeat, President Obama appointed her to run the St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation. Prior to her being elected to Congress, Ms. Sutton served four terms in the Ohio House of Representatives. She joins state Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni in the Democratic gubernatorial field.