This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Key Takeaways

• OH-Sen: Businessman Mike Gibbons (R) Takes GOP Lead
• WV-Sen: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) Still Polling Strong
• GA-7: Rep. Lucy McBath (D) Topping Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D)
• NY-11: Ex-Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) Contemplating Cong Race
• Redistricting: Action in HI; MI; NY
• NV-Gov: Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) in Competitive Re-election Race

Senate

Alabama: WPA Intelligence, polling for the Club for Growth organization (1/25-27; 513 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview) again finds US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) leading the open GOP US Senate nomination field, but with a decreased margin. 

The bigger surprise, however, is engineering firm owner Mike Durant, who has been heavily advertising his candidacy, moving past former Business Council of Alabama and ex-Sen. Richard Shelby chief of staff Katie Britt into second place. The ballot test breaks 35-30-25% in favor of Brooks over Durant and Britt, respectively. The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 24th with a June 21st runoff, if necessary.

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights released their new data results on the Arizona Republican primary, and again found Attorney General Mark Brnovich maintaining the advantage. According to the survey (1/11-13; 855 AZ registered voters; 302 AZ likely Republican primary voters; online), Mr. Brnovich has a 25-11-7-6% lead over retired Air Force Major General Mick McGuire, solar energy company executive Jim Lamon, and venture capitalist Blake Masters, respectively. The Arizona primary is not until August 2nd, so expect this race to obviously intensify in the coming months.

Florida: Suffolk University tested the Florida electorate (1/26-29; 500 FL likely general election voters; live interview) and finds Sen. Marco Rubio (R) running well beyond the polling margin of error against consensus Democratic candidate, US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando). The ballot test numbers gave the Senator a 49-41% lead over Rep. Demings in a race that is expected to become highly competitive.

Missouri: Remington Research is out with their latest Missouri survey (1/26-27; 902 MO likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) and sees former Gov. Eric Greitens still leading the GOP field, but with Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia) moving into position to make the contest a three-way affair. According to the ballot test results, Mr. Greitens leads Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Rep. Hartzler, 28-23-19%, respectively. Rep. Billy Long (R-Springfield) and St. Louis attorney Mark McCloskey consecutively trail with 7 and 5% support.

Nevada: OH Predictive Insights also released their recent Nevada poll (1/19-26; 755 NV likely registered voters; online) and finds Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) pulling back ahead of former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) in a general election ballot test. The most recent previously published poll came from the Trafalgar Group (11/24-29; 1,034 NV likely general election voters) and gave Mr. Laxalt a 44-41% edge. 

In the current OH study, Sen. Cortez Masto is staked to a 44-35% advantage. While the margin difference is strongly in the Senator’s favor, this poll’s conclusion is not as bright for her as a first glance might suggest. Only posting a 44% support number is low for any incumbent.

Ohio: A new Cygnal polling firm survey (1/28-30; 929 OH likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system; text & email), for the first time, sees a new Republican leader in the Buckeye State’s open US Senate race. The Cygnal data suggests that businessman and 2018 Senate candidate Mike Gibbons, after spending heavily on a statewide media buy, has usurped former state Treasurer Josh Mandel. 

The new ballot test finds Mr. Gibbons leading the field, but with just 16% preference, followed by Mr. Mandel at 13%, author J.D. Vance pulling 10% support, and former Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken now lagging behind the pack with 8%. The huge 44% undecided factor suggests that any of these candidates are viable to prevail in the May 3rd primary.

Pennsylvania: The Data for Progress polling organization tested the Pennsylvania Democratic US Senate primary, and again finds Lt. Gov. John Fetterman holding a big lead. In fact, the numbers haven’t changed much from the GQR polling firm’s released mid-December survey. The new DfP poll (1/26-31; 730 PA likely Democratic primary voters; SMS text) sees Mr. Fetterman actually holding a slightly stronger 46-16-12% lead over US Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-Philadelphia). In the December GQR survey (12/14-16; 600 PA likely Democratic primary voters), found the Fetterman margin over Kenyatta and Lamb to be 44-20-15%, respectively.

West Virginia: Triton Polling & Research, conducting a statewide survey for WMOV radio in Ravenswood, WV (1/17-20; 783 WV likely voters; automated), tested the West Virginia electorate in regard to Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D) standing in light of the recent publicity he’s been receiving. The poll finds his favorability rating at 51:40% positive to negative, which measures a bit under Gov. Jim Justice’s (R) 56:29% ratio. 

In an early hypothetical 2024 Senate race pairing between the two, however, Sen. Manchin would lead Gov. Justice, 41-37%. The Senator then polls substantially ahead of Attorney General and 2018 Senate nominee Patrick Morrisey (R), 50-29%, however, and he also runs strongly opposite Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), 49-28%.

Senate: The Federal Election Commission has finally released the year-end financial totals for the federal candidates. The top Senate fundraisers for the 2022 election cycle are: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), $54.1 million, though some of this total includes his statewide runoff election that he was forced to conduct after the general election; Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), $38.0 million; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), $35.2 million; Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), $27.5 million; Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), $24.4 million; and Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), $20.7 million, the lone Senate challenger among the top fundraisers.

House

CA-5: Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig (R) announced that he is ending his special election candidacy in the vacant 22nd District and will instead enter the regular election contest for the new 5th District. The 22nd is former Rep. Devin Nunes’ (R-Tulare) seat from which he resigned in December, but the special election winner will serve only a six-month term because redistricting divides that district into several parts. 

Therefore, Supervisor Magsig, who was a major special election contender, now switches districts to the place Mr. Nunes would have chosen to run had he remained in Congress. This means a challenge to GOP incumbent Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in a seat that stretches from the Sacramento suburbs to the Fresno suburbs. The new 5th is rated as a R+17 under the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization’s projections, so two Republicans advancing to the general election from this district is a possibility. 

GA-7: A super PAC supporting US Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) in her Democratic primary battle against fellow US Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee) conducted a district-wide primary poll that finds her leading the latter member even with fewer carryover constituents. 

According to the Data for Progress survey for the Protect our Future PAC (Released 2/1; 1/13-16; 419 GA-7 likely Democratic primary voters; online & text), Rep. McBath holds a 40-31-6% lead over Rep. Bourdeaux and state Rep. Donna McLeod (D-Lawrenceville). This, despite Rep. Bourdeaux seeing 53% of her constituents landing in the new 7th versus only 12% of Rep. McBath’s current 6th District voters.

MI-10: Former Michigan US Senate candidate John James (R), who held incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) to a 50-48% victory in 2020 after coming within six points of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in 2018, announced that he will run for the new open 10th District that was created in the new Michigan redistricting plan. Mr. James will certainly be the Republican nomination favorite, but the general election is designed to be close. 

While former President Trump would have carried this new 10th CD 50-49% according to the Daily Kos Elections site statistics, Mr. James would have fallen short of Sen. Peters here by just over half a percentage point. The new MI-10 will be one of the most politically marginal districts in the entire country.

NY-11: Former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) is seriously considering running for the US House according to reports emanating from the Big Apple.  Already in the Democratic primary, however, is former Congressman Max Rose who is no ally of de Blasio as the two repeatedly came to verbal blows when both held office. The Republican incumbent is Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island) who unsuccessfully challenged de Blasio when he won re-election to a second mayoral term and unseated then-Rep. Rose in 2020.

Redistricting: Two states moved forward with their congressional redistricting plans. The Hawaii Reapportionment Commission easily drew the new two-district US House map and adopted the plan. Only 2,195 people had to move from Rep. Ed Case’s (D) Honolulu dominated 1st CD to Rep. Kai Kahele’s (D-Hijo) 2nd District that contains part of Oahu and all the remaining islands of the Hawaiian chain.

The Michigan State Supreme Court, on a 4-3 vote, rejected the redistricting challenge of a group of current and past Detroit area African American state legislators late Thursday. The plaintiffs were arguing that the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission members illegally divided many of the minority Voting Rights districts, but a majority of the justices disagreed. Therefore, the Commission-adopted congressional and legislative maps will stand pending further litigation in federal court should the plaintiffs, or others, launch additional legal action.

In New York, the legislative leaders unveiled a map that will likely allow the Democrats to gain four seats in the delegation, as the plan’s design would relegate the Republicans to just four of the new 26 districts awarded the state. New York lost one seat in reapportionment. The plan has now advanced through the legislature and is sent to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) for approval.