The US Supreme Court issued a ruling in the Harris, et al v. the state of North Carolina case that will likely have an immediate major impact upon congressional and state legislative political boundaries. The ruling will change the way minority districts are drawn, in a manner closer toward arguments the Democratic plaintiffs brought forth in this particular case. Therefore, we could see many maps being redrawn in addition to the North Carolina state legislature, which the Harris case directly affects. 

 

Much will come to the forefront as all parties learn more about this significant decision that will carry major short-term and long-term impact upon the way future districts are drawn.  

In a run-off contest that proved every bit as close as the primary two weeks ago, South Carolina former state Rep. Ralph Norman clinched the special election Republican nomination with a 221 vote victory over state House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope. The now official post-recount final totals show a turnout of 35,425 voters, about 90% of the number who voted in the original primary. Mr. Norman advances to the special general election scheduled for June 20th where he will face former Wall Street executive Archie Parnell (D). The first special general election poll, from Victory Enterprises (5/17-18; 629 SC-5 likely special election voters), finds Norman leading Parnell, 53-36%.

 

Tomorrow, voters in Montana will go to the polls to fill the state's at-large congressional vacancy. Former Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) left his position to become US Interior Secretary. Voters will choose between Republican businessman and former gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte and Democratic country folk singer Rob Quist. Republicans are favored to hold the seat but, as always, voter turnout will be the determining factor.

 

A new Survey USA poll in the Georgia special election (5/16-20; 700 GA-6 adults; winnowed to 549 early and likely special election voters) gives Democrat Jon Ossoff his largest lead of the campaign, a 51-44% spread over former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R). A Democratic skew is detected in the polling sample, but Ossoff leading the race is a reasonable conclusion. It is doubtful that his advantage, if it does exist, would be as strong as this poll suggests, however, because too many Democrats comprise the respondent sample.

 

In Nebraska's politically marginal 2nd Congressional District that encompasses the Omaha metropolitan region, non-profit executive Kara Eastman announced that she will seek the Democratic nomination.  Ms. Eastman, who runs the Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance organization, will likely face either former Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Omaha) or his wife in the party primary. The couple has confirmed one of the two will run next year. Mr. Ashford served one term in the House, losing his seat to current incumbent Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha). 

 

Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy), who had already announced he will not seek re-election in 2018, says he will resign from the House effective June 30th. His exit from Congress sets the stage for the first special federal election in this state since 1930. Gov. Gary Herbert (R) acted quickly and has already scheduled the special election, including setting a candidate filing deadline (this Friday, May 26th) more than a month in advance of Mr. Chaffetz actually leaving office.The special primary will occur on August 15th with the special general to follow on November 7th. 

 

Already six Republicans, including three state legislators, the son of Boston Celtics general manager and Brigham Young University basketball star Danny Ainge (Tanner Ainge), and three minor candidates, along with three minor Democratic candidates have all announced for the special election. A petition signature requirement of 7,000 valid registered voter signatures due on June 12th may significantly winnow the field, however. Republicans are favored to hold the seat.

Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) being confirmed as US Ambassador to China led to his resigning his state chief executive position, effective today. Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) will automatically ascend to the Governor's office. She is eligible to run for a full term in 2018. Opposition will be intense, at least in the general election though several Republicans have not yet ruled out challenging the new Governor. Mr. Branstad is the longest-serving Governor in American history, over 22 years through six non-consecutive terms. Ms. Reynolds, then a state Senator, was elected Lt. Governor in 2010 as Mr. Branstad's running mate.