This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Keyword Takeaways:

• Missouri: flip-flopping polling data in Senate race with small leads for either Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) or Attorney General Josh Hawley (R)
• CA-49: Democrat Mike Levin jumps out to lead in Rep. Darrell Issa's (R) open seat over Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey (R) in recent polling
• NJ-2: Republicans back away from candidate Seth Grossman because of past racist statements with chance of retaining Rep. Frank LoBiondo's (R) seat slim at best
• NY-14: defeated Rep. Joe Crowley (D) still on general election ballot with Working Families Party nomination despite losing in the Democratic primary to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
• NC-9: Democrat Dan McCready leads in the open seat race against Baptist former pastor Mark Harris (R), who upset incumbent Rep. Bob Pittenger (R) in the GOP primary
• Alaska: three polls find Gov. Bill Walker (I) trailing former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R) and former U.S. Senator Mark Begich (D)

Senate

Arizona: Axios Media, in conjunction with the Survey Monkey organization, launched a 13-state US Senate race study (conducted during 6/11-7/2 where 12,677 registered voters were interviewed in their 13-state sample taken from their pre-qualified universe of 3,000,000 respondents). The Arizona results (1,290 sample size) finds Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) leading Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson), the strongest Republican in the field, by a 48-44% margin. Under various turnout models, the Sinema range stretches from one to six percentage points.

Florida: The Axios-Survey Monkey polling project also tested the Florida electorate (1,080 respondents - see Arizona Senate above for further details) and found Gov. Rick Scott (R) to be leading Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by a 49-46% margin. Under all tested turnout models, Gov. Scott's lead reaches from three to nine percentage points.

Indiana: Again covering the Axios-Survey Monkey data, this time for Indiana (952 respondents - see Arizona Senate above for further details), the results find former state Rep. Mike Braun (R) topping Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) 49-47%. Under the pollsters' elasticity models, the Braun advantage ranges anywhere between one and eight percentage points depending upon the voter turnout model employed.

Missouri The Missouri Senate race may arguably be the most topsy-turvy race in the country so far this year. Most polls have shown just a small lead for one contender or the other but, in most, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) has enjoyed a small advantage. For example, the Axios Media/Survey Monkey poll (see Arizona Senate) posted the Senator to a 49-47% advantage.

Yesterday, however, Remington Research released its new Show Me State survey for the Missouri Times news site (released 7/10; 1,034 MO registered voters via automated response device) and finds Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) slipping back into the lead, posting a slight 48-46% edge over Sen. McCaskill. We can expect this race being rated a toss-up all the way to Election Day.

Nebraska: The Grassroots Targeting qualitative research organization yesterday released the results of their recent 1,000 person voter survey of the Nebraska electorate and found first-term Sen. Deb Fischer (R) cruising to re-election. According to the GT results, Sen. Fischer would lead Lincoln City Councilwoman Jane Raybould (D) 63-28% if the election were held in the current time frame.

North Dakota: One more state the Axios-Survey Monkey project tested was North Dakota. There, 457 respondents participated (see Arizona Senate above for further details). According to the Survey Monkey results, at-large US Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) holds a 52-47% edge over Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) and the data models range from five to ten percentage points in the Congressman's favor.

Ohio: In addition to the Missouri results, Ohio is the only state where the Axios-Survey Monkey elasticity turnout models produce different leaders. According to the released data (951 OH respondents - see Arizona Senate above for further details), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leads Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth), 52-44%, but the elasticity stretches from the most likely eight percentage point Brown margin all the way to a one point edge for Rep. Renacci. In the remaining Democratic incumbent states tested: Michigan, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the sitting office holder has a strong lead under all scenarios.

Tennessee: Here, the Axios-Survey Monkey data (1,010 respondents - see Arizona Senate above for further details) produces a much stronger Republican result than in most other polls. According to these data, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) is opening up a substantial 55-41% lead over former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), with an elasticity range of 14 to 19 points depending upon turnout model scenario.

West Virginia: The Mountain State Axios-Survey Monkey results (892 respondents - see Arizona Senate above for further details) are also more favorable to one candidate than most polling suggests. Here, Sen. Joe Manchin (D) leads Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), 53-40%. The turnout model elasticity range favors Sen. Manchin from 11 to 13 percentage points.

House

CA-49: Democratic candidate Mike Levin released the results from his first campaign poll conducted in conjunction with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. In the San Diego/Orange County congressional seat that Republican Darrell Issa (R-Vista) is vacating, the new Feldman Group poll (6/24-27; 400 CA-49 registered voters with an over-sample of 200 independents who are registered as "No Party Preference") finds the poll sponsor leading Republican Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey (R) 44-41% in the first ballot test, and 49-46% when those leaning to both candidates are added to the sample.

NJ-2: New events in New Jersey's open 2nd District have caused the National Republican Congressional Committee to back away from its endorsed nominee. Information coming into the public domain revealing past racist statements from Republican candidate Seth Grossman is precipitating the action. Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D-Cape May) has long been considered the favorite to replace retiring twelve-term incumbent Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor), so GOP chances of retaining this seat were slim at best even at the beginning of the campaign.

NY-14: Amid a back-and-forth controversy between New York Rep. Joe Crowley (D-Queens/Bronx) and the woman who defeated him in last month's Democratic primary, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the prospect of a general election campaign between the two still remains. Though Mr. Crowley lost the Democratic primary, he won the Working Families Party nomination, which means he has ballot placement for the general election. Though being called upon by the Working Families leadership to resign from the ticket, Mr. Crowley has refused to do so, but still says he supports Ocasio-Cortez. Therefore, it is at least conceivable that we could see a re-match between the two in the general election.

NC-9: Baptist former pastor Mark Harris upset GOP Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) in the May 8th Republican primary, but a new poll suggests the new party nominee is trailing as the candidates move toward the general election vote on November 6th. The North Carolina-based Civitas Group, a conservative think tank that often sponsors polls of the Tar Heel State electorate, contracted with Survey USA to test the 9th Congressional District race. According to the poll (7/5-8; 543 NC-9 likely general election voters), businessman Dan McCready (D) has jumped out to a 43-36% lead over Mr. Harris.

WI-1: Labor activist Randy Bryce (D) was raising millions of dollars when he was running against Speaker Paul Ryan (R) before the latter man announced his retirement. Now, his cash-on-hand still reads over $2 million but that so far isn't helping him as much in his Democratic primary battle with Janesville School Board member Cathy Myers. According to a just-released Remington Research poll, Ms. Myers has assumed a 34-33% lead as the two move closer to the August 14th Democratic primary. Republicans are sure to nominate University Regent Bryan Steil, a long associate of Speaker Ryan. The race is expected to generate strong competition in November.

Governor

Alabama: A just-released recent Atlantic Media & Research survey (6/12-14 & 6/18-21; 440 AL registered voters) finds Gov. Kay Ivey (R) jumping out to a major 53-28% general election lead over Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (D). Both Gov. Ivey and Mayor Maddox won their respective Republican and Democratic Party nominations outright on June 5th, so neither was forced into a July 17th run-off election.

Alaska: Last week, the Alaska Research Service released polling numbers that found Gov. Bill Walker (I) falling well behind both Republican former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy and Democratic ex-US Senator Mark Begich. The ballot test showed Gov. Walker trailing in third place, 38-33-23%, behind both Dunleavy and Begich.

This week, the Governor released his own Patinkin Research Strategies poll (6/22-28; 800 AK likely general election voters), but his own survey actually confirms significant portions of the ARS poll. According to Patinkin, Mr. Dunleavy is also placed in the lead with 36%, followed by Gov. Walker attracting 28%, while Mr. Begich polls last at 22%. Later, Harstad Strategic Research conducted a survey for the Alaska AFL-CIO and also found Messrs. Walker and Begich alternating positions.

According to the Harstad results (6/21-26; 602 AK likely general election voters), Mr. Dunleavy holds a 32-28-28% lead over his two opponents. The polling also finds that both Walker and Begich would top Dunleavy in a one-on-one race, but there is no sign that either the Governor or ex-Senator will soon depart the campaign. So, unless something changes before the August 21st primary, the Alaska Governor's race will feature three major candidates.

Wyoming: A new poll University of Wyoming poll for Wyoming Public Media and the Wyoming PBS outlet (6/18-20; 596 WY Republican voters) finds that any of the candidates can still win the August 21st GOP primary to succeed term-limited Governor Matt Mead (R). State Treasurer Mark Gordon places first with 19% of the vote, followed by businessman Sam Galeotos who polls 14%, while attorney Harriet Hageman follows with 11%, and retired physician and former gubernatorial candidate Taylor Haynes has 10 percent. Billionaire investor Foster Friess is next with 7%, and businessman Bill Dahlin follows with just 1% preference.