This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Senate
After flirting last week with mounting a Republican primary challenge to embattled Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake - damaged among GOP base voters for his public and prolonged campaign feud with President Trump - Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Prescott) announced this week that he will seek re-election to a fifth term in the House next year and not run statewide.
Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel/north Indianapolis) announced that she will not oppose Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) next year. On the other hand, Rep. Luke Messer (R-Greensburg/Muncie) appears to be moving closer to entering the statewide contest. Rep. Todd Rokita (R-Brownsburg/Lafayette) confirms that he is considering becoming a Senate candidate. With Indiana's strong Republican performance in 2016, Sen. Donnelly begins the election cycle rated as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
Retiring NASCAR race driver Carl Edwards (R) is reportedly contemplating entering the Missouri US Senate race to challenge Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. Widely viewed as one of the most competitive of the upcoming 2018 Senate contests, Edwards may well face a Republican primary field of candidates that potentially includes one or more of the following: Reps. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin), Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Jefferson City), Sam Graves (R-Tarkio), and state Treasurer Eric Schmitt.
A new Dan Jones & Associates poll (1/9-16; 605 UT registered voters) finds Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch trailing former Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) badly in a hypothetical GOP primary. The numbers project the former Governor, US Ambassador to China, and presidential candidate to be leading the seven-term Senator 49-35%, among a small number of self-identified Republicans. Sen. Hatch indicated his 2012 campaign would be his last, but is now reportedly considering running again. Mr. Huntsman says he will not run against Hatch, but other Republicans might.
House
Two of the upcoming special congressional elections are now scheduled. California Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles) was confirmed as the state's new Attorney General, and he immediately resigned from Congress to accept the position. Gov. Jerry Brown (D) then called the replacement election for June 6th, with a jungle primary on April 4th. Eighteen candidates have already announced, including 15 Democrats, two Republicans and one Green. It is likely that a pair of Democrats will advance to the run-off from the downtown Los Angeles district.
Former Kansas Rep. Mike Pompeo's (R-Wichita) confirmation as CIA Director resulted in his immediate resignation from the House. Gov. Sam Brownback (R) set the 4th District special election for April 11th. Republican and Democratic Party leaders will meet in local convention to choose their nominees, and must complete their process by February 18th. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored to hold the seat. Former US Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Wichita) and state Treasurer Ron Estes appear to be the most prominent candidates among whom the Republican delegates must choose.
Remaining in Kansas, US Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka) announced that she won't seek re-election to a sixth term in 2018. Her leaving the House is not a surprise, but stating a desire to return to the private sector does raise eyebrows. It was commonly believed that she would enter the upcoming open Governor's race. Her action yields wide-open campaigns for both Governor and her 2nd District House seat. Gov. Sam Brownback (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
A new Moore Information poll (1/18-19; 500 MT likely special election voters) conducted for the Greg Gianforte Campaign finds the former Republican gubernatorial nominee opening up a substantial lead against the two most prominent potential Democratic candidates. Gianforte tops state Rep. Amanda Curtis (D), 47-33%, and Assistant US Attorney Zeno Baucus (D), 45-29%. Perhaps the Democrats' best candidate, former Montana School Superintendent and 2016 congressional nominee Denise Juneau, declined to run in the special election.
Republicans received good news in South Carolina when state Senator and former gubernatorial nominee Vincent Sheheen (D) announced that he will not enter the special election to replace soon-to-be-confirmed Office of Management & Budget director Mick Mulvaney (US Rep; SC-5; Lancaster/Rock Hill). Mr. Sheheen, who once held former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) to only a four-point statewide win, says he will remain in the legislature. Without him as the party standard bearer, the Democrats' chances of scoring a special election upset greatly diminish.
Governor
A new Public Policy Polling survey (1/17-18; 882 CA registered voters) tested the upcoming open California gubernatorial race in a jungle primary format. The results found Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) leading the field with 25%, followed by San Diego Mayor Kevin Falconer (R) who has 20% support. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) and former Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin (R) followed with 13 and 12%, respectively. Announced candidates Antonio Villaraigosa (D), a former LA Mayor, and John Chiang (D), the state Treasurer, scored only 9 and 2% voter preference.
Lt. Gov. Newsom, and Messrs. Villaraigosa and Chiang are the only officially declared candidates. Mayors Falconer and Garcetti are reported to be considering the race, while Ms. Swearengin has already said that she will not be running for Governor. Incumbent Gov. Jerry Brown (D) is ineligible to seek a third consecutive term. He was originally Governor from 1975-1983, and then returned to the position in 2011.