This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Senate
The political tangibles and intangibles continue to break appointed Alabama Sen. Luther Strange's (R) way as preparations begin for the August 15th special primary election. Yesterday, the National Rifle Association announced their official endorsement of Strange, which is a major plumb in what will be a sprint to the right among the GOP participants. Sen. Strange's main opponents appear as US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) and ex-state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore.
House
Voters in Montana went to the polls in record numbers to fill the state's at-large congressional vacancy. Former Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) left his position to become US Interior Secretary. Republican businessman and former gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte defeated Democratic country folk singer Rob Quist by a 50-44% margin. The voter turnout exceeded 377,000 voters, the largest all-time for a special election, but from a state that houses the most populous congressional district in the United States.
Gianforte easily overcame the controversy involving his physical altercation with a news reporter, an incident that dominated the news coverage the day before the election. But, such a late-evolving event would have little effect upon the outcome because at least 260,000 of the 377,000 votes had already been mailed into the county election offices.
Last week, California Democratic attorney Bryan Caforio, who held two-term Rep. Steve Knight (R-Palmdale/Simi Valley) to a 53-47% re-election victory, announced he will seek a re-match in 2018. This week, he released a Public Policy Polling survey (5/16-17; 596 CA-25 likely jungle primary voters), showing a Caforio lock on second place in the proposed jungle primary, which is the critical step toward advancing into the general election. According to the PPP results, Rep. Knight would command 46% with Caforio taking 30% preference. Non-profit organization executive Katie Hill (D) would score 9% with geologist Jess Phoenix (D) pulling 4 percent. In a Knight-Caforio general election projection, the Republican incumbent would lead the Democratic challenger by a tight 47-43% early margin.
Candidate financial reports were disclosed for the coming California special election in the downtown Los Angeles anchored 34th District. Thanks to another personal influx of money from the candidate, former LA City Planning Commissioner Robert Lee Ahn (D) reported campaign receipts totaling $1.372 million including candidate loans of $490,000. Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez (D), commonly viewed as the favorite in the June 6th election, has obtained $1.331 million sans any personal loans or contributions.
Candidate filing closed for the Utah special election and 15 Republicans and four Democrats returned their paperwork. Republicans have now scheduled a June 17th nominating convention. If a candidate obtains 60% delegate support, he or she would move immediately into the primary to face any candidate who achieves ballot access by petition. The latter individuals would have to obtain at least 7,000 valid registered voter signatures to qualify for the primary. If no one receives 60%, then any candidate obtaining 40% or more advances, which mathematically limits the number to only two. Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin, who placed second here in November, did not file as a Republican but has until June 12th to register as an Independent candidate. The primary election is August 15th with the special general to follow on November 7th. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy) is resigning to take a yet-to-be-announced position in the private sector.
Governor
Spokespeople for Independent Alaska Gov. Bill Walker say the state's chief executive will announce his electoral plans after the special legislative budget session concludes in mid-June. The Governor is expected to seek a second term, but mystery remains as to whether he will continue running as an Independent, will rejoin the Republicans, or even run under the Democratic label. Since he has allied himself closer to the Democrats in the budget process, it is within the realm of possibility that he decides to seek their nomination.
Democrats received potentially bad news in their quest to convert what will be an open Kansas Governor's mansion. Greg Orman, the 2014 Independent, and de facto Democratic 2014 US Senate candidate who held Sen. Pat Roberts (R) to a ten-point victory, says he may enter the upcoming Governor's race. Mr. Orman became Sen. Roberts' main opponent three years ago because Democrats did not field a credible alternative. That's not the case in the upcoming Governor's race as several prominent Democrats are stepping forward to run.
A strong Independent candidacy appealing to left-of-center voters, such as Mr. Orman's, would be devastating to the Democratic nominee because he will drain liberal votes. Such would create an easier path for the eventual Republican nominee. Expect the Democrats to take whatever action they can to prevent this split ticket scenario.