This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Key Takeaways

• President: Local Dem County Votes for 2024 Primary
• MO-Sen: Sen. Roy Blunt (R) to Retire
• NH-Sen: Gov. Chris Sununu (R) Again Leads Sen. Maggie Hassan (D)
• Louisiana: House Special Elections Turn for Home
• OH-11: Rep. Marcia Fudge (D) Resigns; Special Election Coming
• KS-Gov: GOP Primary Brewing
• States: TN Moving to Change AG Selection Process

President

Iowa: This week, Johnson County Democrats passed a resolution with 78% of the attending party members in agreement to change the Iowa presidential nominating system from a caucus to a primary. Many believe the 2020 Democratic caucus debacle featuring a system so complicated that even today it is difficult to determine whether Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) or now-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg actually won the statewide caucus vote will not return for future presidential campaigns.

Senate

Arkansas: While most of the early political announcements have dealt with retirements, one Senator not opting out of a 2022 race is Arkansas Republican Sen. John Boozman. Over the weekend, Mr. Boozman announced that he will seek a third term next year. He will prove to be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Florida: Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy released their latest Florida statewide survey (2/24-28; 625 FL registered voters) testing Sen. Marco Rubio’s re-election status as he prepares to run for a third term in 2022. According to the M-D data, the Senator has a 47:42% job approval ratio. By a margin of 46-40%, the survey respondents said they would vote to re-elect Sen. Rubio. 

Indiana: Former US Senator and House member Joe Donnelly (D), who lost his Senate re-election in 2018 to current Indiana Sen. Mike Braun (R) despite running in a strong Democratic year, said in a Tweet this week that he will not launch a statewide effort against Sen. Todd Young (R) next year. Mr. Donnelly lost a 51-45% race in 2018 after serving a single Senate term. He represented the 2nd Congressional District for six years beginning with his 2006 electoral victory. 

Maryland: Greenbelt Mayor Colin Byrd, who had announced a Democratic primary challenge to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville) back in December, has now changed races. This week, Mayor Byrd indicated that he is abandoning his Hoyer challenge and will instead oppose Sen. Chris Van Hollen in the 2022 Democratic primary. Mr. Byrd says Sen. Van Hollen did not fight strongly enough to keep the $15 minimum wage provision in the COVID-19 relief package is his main reason for switching races. Sen. Van Hollen is a prohibitive favorite both in the Democratic primary and the 2022 general election.

Missouri: Missouri Senator Roy Blunt became the fifth Republican to announce that he won’t seek re-election in 2022. Sen. Blunt was originally elected to the House in 1996, the first of his seven terms. He previously served as the Missouri Secretary of State and Green County Clerk over his long career in elective politics. In 2016, he won a competitive 49-46% race over then-Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) to secure his second and final US Senate term. If two more potential retirees, Sens. Chuck Grassley (IA) and Ron Johnson (WI), choose not to seek re-election, the Republicans will be forced to defend seven open seats in a toss-up election cycle.

New Hampshire: A second poll published within 20 days of the first gives Gov. Chris Sununu (R) a lead over Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in anticipation of the two potentially squaring off in the 2022 general election. On the heels of the University of New Hampshire study from late February that gave the Governor a 48-46% edge over Sen. Hassan, the current St. Anselm’s survey (3/4-6; 871 NH registered voters; online) finds Gov. Sununu in stronger shape, leading 47-41% with a 67:31% favorable job approval rating. By contrast, Sen. Hassan’s favorability index is 47:44%. Such a race could become a premier 2022 national Senate campaign.

North Carolina: Retired space shuttle astronaut Joan Higginbotham, one of the first African American women to be launched into space, confirms that she is considering entering the Democratic primary for what will be an open US Senate race next year. Already in the race are state Senator Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) and former state Senator and 2020 US Senate candidate Erica Smith. Potential Democratic candidates include state Attorney General Josh Stein and former US Transportation Secretary and ex-Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx. For the Republicans, former US Rep. Mark Walker is an announced candidate and ex-Governor Pat McCrory is a potential candidate. Sen. Richard Burr (R) is not seeking a fourth term.

House

FL-11: State Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R-Howey-in-the-Hills) says he will run for Congress next year. Congressman Dan Webster (R-Clermont) noted that Mr. Sabatini called him last week to say that he would run for the House but not oppose him. Rep. Sabatini’s hometown of Howey-in-the-Hills is currently in Rep. Webster’s district, but the phone conversation may not prove to be disingenuous or inconsistent. Reapportionment is projected to award Florida with two new congressional seats, and one looks to be headed to the Orlando area based upon population trends. Therefore, Mr. Sabatini may just be getting a head start in preparation for an open run in a new congressional district.

Louisiana: The pre-primary Federal Election Commission reports for the two Louisiana special elections are now public. In the vacant 2nd District, the 15-candidate campaign appears winnowing down to two major contenders, both Democratic state Senators. Sen. Troy Carter (D-New Orleans), who has attracted most of the key endorsements, has raised over $944,000 and holds just over $291,000 cash-on-hand according to his February 28th report. His colleague in the legislature, state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson (D-New Orleans), reports just under $450,000 raised while topping $207,000 in the bank. 

It is likely the March 20th election sends both Sens. Carter and Peterson into an April 24th runoff election. An Edgewater Research survey (3/2-7; 651 LA-2 likely voters; interactive voice response system and live interview) found Sen. Carter leading Sen. Peterson and Mr. Chambers, 35-24-11%, as the candidates turn into the final week of campaigning before the first election.

In the vacant 5th District, the story is much different. There, Julia Letlow (R), widow of Congressman-Elect Luke Letlow (R), has a wide financial lead. She reports just under $683,000 raised with $521,000 remaining to spend. Her next closest opponent, Democrat Candy Christophe, reported just under $70,000 obtained with a little over $50,000 in her campaign account. Ms. Letlow is becoming a heavy favorite to win the special election and certainly has the opportunity to win outright on March 20th.

OH-11: Ohio’s 11th Congressional District that stretches from Cleveland to Akron is now officially vacant. Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-Cleveland), upon her confirmation as Housing & Urban Development Secretary in the Biden Administration this week, resigned from the House. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will now officially schedule the replacement special election. The most likely primary date will be May 4th, concurrent with the state’s municipal elections, while the special general is probable for early August.

Governor

Kansas: Former Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer (R), who ascended to the position from his election as Lt. Governor when then-Gov. Sam Brownback (R) resigned to accept a federal position in the Trump Administration, is looking at launching another run for the state’s top office. As the sitting Governor, Dr. Colyer lost the 2018 Republican primary to then-Secretary of State Kris Kobach by just 343 votes statewide. Mr. Kobach then went onto lose the general election to Democrat Laura Kelly.

Late last week, Dr. Colyer sent an email to supporters announcing that Mary Eisenhower, granddaughter of former President and Kansas native Dwight D. Eisenhower, will serve as his campaign treasurer. This week, Attorney General Derek Schmidt announced that he will run for Governor next year, as well. The move sets the stage for a major GOP primary battle in August of 2022 before the winner takes on Gov. Kelly three months later.

Nebraska: Three-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/ Omaha) confirmed late this week that he is considering running for the state’s open Governor’s office in 2022. Rep. Bacon has won three tough elections and reached 51% only one time in the marginal metro Omaha’s 2nd Congressional District. Earlier in the year, it was reported that Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is also considering entering the gubernatorial race, but neither GOP officeholder is definitive about their 2022 plans at the present time. Sen. Fischer is not again in-cycle until 2024. Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. 

New York: Earlier this year, grocery store magnate and former New York City Republican mayoral candidate John Catsimatidis toyed with the idea of entering the 2021 mayoral contest as a Democrat saying he would spend $100 million. He soon decided against such a move. Now, reports suggest that Mr. Catsimatidis may be looking at the Republican gubernatorial nomination since Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is on the political ropes. He again speaks of making a $100 million personal expenditure.

Texas: Former state Sen. Don Huffines, who has the ability to self-fund a statewide race in Texas, confirmed that he is considering challenging Gov. Greg Abbott in the 2022 Republican primary. Mr. Huffines, who lost his Senate seat in 2018, referred to the Governor in a Houston Chronicle article as “King Abbott.” He then tweeted, “it’ll be great to have our freedoms back next week. Unfortunately, we still live in a dictatorship where Greg Abbott can yank those the next time it’s politically convenient to him.”

Virginia: The Virginia Republican Party has yet another problem with their 2021 statewide nomination process. Originally opting out of a primary election in favor of some type of modified conclave, their desired site for a “drive-thru” convention, Liberty University, now sees its administrators rejecting the idea. LU officials say the campus cannot physically handle as many as 4,000 cars and an additional 70 buses all descending upon their campus at approximately the same time. Therefore, how the party now proceeds is open to question.

The major Republican candidates are Delegate and former state House Speaker Kirk Cox (R-Colonial Heights), state Sen. Amanda Chase (R-Midlothian), and businessmen Paul Davis, Pete Snyder, and Glenn Youngkin. Former Roanoke Sheriff Octavia Johnson just announced her candidacy this week.

Ratings: The University of Virginia’s political prognosticator Larry Sabato has released his first ratings of the 2021-22 Governor’s cycle. Curiously, of the 38 races to be held during the two-year period he rates just one of them, Hawaii, as wholly safe for the Democratic Party but nine securely in the Republican column. Many would disagree with such an outlook, but complicating factors as a Governor’s recall in California and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s personal problems raise questions about future election prospects in even this pair of rock-solid Democratic states.

Currently, Republicans have a 27-23 edge in Governor’s offices. Of the twelve states not holding chief executive elections during this cycle, Republicans hold eight and Democrats’ four. Dr. Sabato rates 15 of the early contests as heading toward the Democratic side and 17 going Republican with five states, Arizona (R), Georgia (R), Kansas (D), Pennsylvania (D), and Wisconsin (D) in the toss-up category.

States

Tennessee: Tennessee is the only place where the state Supreme Court, through secret ballot, appoints the attorney general for an eight-year term. That process may soon change. The state Senate passed, for the second time, a measure to make the Supreme Court vote public and install a confirmation process for both houses of the General Assembly. 

In Tennessee, the state Constitution can only be changed when both houses vote twice to do so, the second time with a 2/3 majority. Once the House passes this bill for a second time, and with a supermajority, the measure would move to the 2022 ballot for voters to confirm the change. Forty-four of the fifty states select their attorney general through direct election.