This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Key Takeaways

• IA-Sen: Ex-Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) Organizing Senate Bid
• VT-Sen: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) Leaning Toward a Ninth Term
• FL-7: Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) Won’t Run Statewide
• NM-1: Special Election Coming Tuesday
• NV-Gov: Ex-Sen. Dean Heller (R) Preparing Run for Governor
• RI-Gov: Dem Sec of State to Challenge New Gov. Dan McKee (D)
• Los Angeles: Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) for India Ambassador Post

Senate

Iowa: Speculation continues around whether octogenarian Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley (R), who was elected the same night when Ronald Reagan first won the Presidency, will seek an eighth term next year. Most are now believing that he will run again. Under this backdrop, the Democrats are beginning to stir. 

Former Crawford County Supervisor and farmer Dave Muhlbauer, who lost his re-election campaign by just 95 votes, formally announced this week that he will seek the Democratic Senatorial nomination. More significantly, former Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer (D), who lost her seat after one term to freshman Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) last November, is reportedly preparing to announce a US Senate challenge to Sen. Grassley. It is likely the Iowa 2022 Senate race will be competitive. 

Ohio: Ohio State Sen. Matt Dolan (D-Chagrin Falls), the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and co-owner of the Cleveland Indians baseball club, has formed a US Senate exploratory committee. Should he ultimately decide to enter the open statewide campaign, he would minimally face former Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken, ex-state Treasurer Josh Mandel, and likely author J.D. Vance, with others also contemplating candidacies. Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta), however, citing an inability to raise competitive funds from his Appalachia political base, announced late this week that he will not run for the Senate.

Pennsylvania: A small-sample Change Research poll (released 5/24; 302 PA likely Democratic primary voters; weighted; online) for Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s Senatorial bid finds him leading US Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) 40-21% in an early statewide Democratic primary poll. All other potential candidates have less than 10% support. Rep. Lamb has not yet declared his political intentions for 2022.

Data for Progress, conducting a more substantial statewide survey (5/7-14; 651 PA likely voters; web panel) also finds Mr. Fetterman leading in hypothetical general election pairings. Against former Republican Lt. Governor nominee Jeff Bartos, the Democratic margin is 48-38%. If former congressional nominee Sean Parnell were his general election opponent, Mr. Fetterman would begin with a slightly closer 48-40% advantage.

Though two-term Pennsylvania US Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) sometimes appeared on a list of open US Senate race potential candidates, she was never viewed as a serious Democratic contender. During the week, Rep. Wild confirmed that she won’t run statewide, but will seek re-election to her current position. 

Vermont: Three-term Gov. Phil Scott (R) says he has not decided whether to seek a fourth two-year term next year but will not run for the US Senate. Now that Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) is signaling that he will run for re-election not only would Gov. Scott not oppose him, but he would actually vote for him. Sen. Leahy, who will be 82 years of age before the next election, was first elected in 1974. He is currently the 13th longest serving member of Congress and third on the all-time seniority list of those who spent their entire federal career in the Senate. He is behind only the late Sens. Strom Thurmond (R-SC) and Ted Kennedy (D-MA) in the latter category. 

Wisconsin: State Senator and former Minority Leader Chris Larson (D-Milwaukee) threw his hat into the US Senate political ring this week, making four credible Democratic candidates vying to oppose Sen. Ron Johnson (R), or run for an open seat should the latter man decide to retire. The previously announced Democratic candidates are State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, and Milwaukee Bucks basketball club senior executive and ex-Obama White House aide Alex Lasry. Sen. Johnson is expected to reveal his 2022 political plans after the summer ends.

House

FL-7: Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Orlando) this week confirmed that she will seek re-election to her House seat in 2022 and not run statewide either for Senate or Governor. She said, “[so] I’ve decided instead of running for the U.S. Senate, I will devote my energy to helping make our party stronger.” The Murphy move boosts fellow Orlando area Rep. Val Demings’ US Senate candidacy as she attempts to unite the Democratic Party around her budding challenge to Sen. Marco Rubio (R).

FL-10: Florida Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) looks to be formally announcing her Senate candidacy next month, so US House contenders are already coming forward. Last month, state Sen. Randolph Bracy (D-Orlando) expressed interest in running for Governor but said he would opt for Rep. Demings’ open congressional seat if she decided to enter a statewide race. This week, Sen. Bracy confirmed he would run for Ms. Demings’ congressional office. Also announcing or making moves to form a congressional campaign are ex-US Attorney Aramis Ayala and civil rights lawyer Natalie Jackson, both Democrats.

NM-1: According to a just published RRH Elections survey (5/18-21; 555 NM-1 special election voters and those intending to vote; interactive voice response system and online), state Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-Albuquerque) leads Republican state Senator Mark Moores (R-Albuquerque) by a 49-33% count as they head toward their June 1st special election. The winner serves the balance of the term that former Rep. Deb Haaland (D) won in November. She resigned the House seat to become US Interior Secretary. According to the survey, 70% of those interviewed have already cast their ballot in the state’s early voting process. 

TX-30: Before the 2020 election, 15-term Texas Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas) indicated that she was running for the last time. She has not reiterated her retirement decision since, but clearly Democrats are presuming that she is serving her final two years in the House.

Early in the week, business consultant and former congressional candidate Shenita Cleveland (D) announced that she will run again. Four others, including the Biden 2020 campaign Texas director Jane Hamilton, have already declared candidacies. Ms. Hamilton said, however, that she will not run if Rep. Johnson, who will be 87 years of age at the beginning of the next Congress, ultimately decides to seek re-election.

Governor

California: The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) released its new statewide survey (5/9-18; 1,705 CA adults; 1,074 CA likely voters; live interview; English and Spanish) and finds Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) surviving his recall election with a 40-57% Yes/No preference. Both the Yes and No vote numbers are higher than we’ve seen in previous polls, but the option to keep Newsom in office leads in every iteration.

This poll may be a bit slanted in his favor, however, since the sampling universe is of adults and not exclusively registered or likely voters, though the question as to whether the respondent would vote in the special recall election, whenever it is scheduled, was asked. A California adult universe tends to be more liberal than a registered or likely voter segment. Therefore, while it is reasonable to assume that Gov. Newsom will survive the recall vote if the election were today, it is also probable that the margin will close once there is a date certain for the vote and the campaign begins in earnest.

Nevada: Former US Senator Dean Heller (R), who lost his seat to current Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in 2016, is reportedly considering running for Governor next year. Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R) is indicating that he will formally announce his gubernatorial campaign next month, while North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee is already in the statewide race. The eventual Republican nominee will face Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) in what should be a competitive 2022 general election campaign.

New Jersey: According to a Public Policy Polling survey (5/24-25; 591 NJ likely GOP primary voters; interactive voice response system) conducted for the Democratic Governors’ Association, former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli has wrestled the Republican primary ballot test lead from businessman and frequent candidate Hirsch Singh, 29-23%. An earlier Singh campaign internal poll found Mr. Ciattarelli, the party endorsed candidate, trailing by two percentage points. Former President Donald Trump, who has not endorsed a candidate in this race to date, is well regarded among New Jersey Republicans, sporting an 87:8% positive ratio. 

Ohio: Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley (D), who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current position, has been raising money for a 2022 gubernatorial bid. Yesterday, he indicated that he will formally announce his statewide campaign at some point in July. Already in the Democratic primary field is Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, who just earned the support of the powerful Ohio Association of Public School Employees union. The eventual Democratic nominee will challenge Gov. Mike DeWine (R).

Oklahoma: Former state Sen. Connie Johnson (D), who was the party nominee for the US Senate in 2014 and lost the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary to ex-Attorney General Drew Edmondson, declared that she will return for the 2022 Governor’s race. Ms. Johnson is the first Democrat to enter the race. First-term Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) will seek a second term and is a heavy favorite for re-election.

Rhode Island: Late this week, two-term Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea formally announced that she will challenge Gov. Dan McKee in next year’s Democratic primary. The move comes as no surprise since Ms. Gorbea had long been projected as a gubernatorial candidate. 

Upon then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigning to become US Commerce Secretary, Mr. McKee, then the state’s Lt. Governor, ascended to the position to serve the remainder of the current term. Further Democratic opposition is expected in what will be a highly competitive September 2022 primary battle for Gov. McKee. The eventual winner becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the open general election.

Cities

Anchorage: When the Anchorage City Clerk reported that “very few” ballots remain to be counted for the open Mayor’s race – Friday was the deadline for all votes to be received ending a lengthy counting period from the May 11th runoff election – Democrat Forest Dunbar conceded the election to Republican Dave Bronson. With the unofficial vote count giving Mr. Bronson a 50.7 – 49.3% lead (1,191 vote margin of 90,587 counted ballots), the latter man’s margin would clearly remain intact when all received ballots are counted. Mr. Bronson replaces Acting Mayor Austin Quinn-Davidson (D) who did not seek election after she was appointed to succeed resigned Mayor Ethan Berkowitz (D) in October. 

Los Angeles: News reports are suggesting that President Biden has decided to nominate Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) as the US Ambassador to India. Once the appointment is made and the Senate confirms, the Los Angeles City Councilmembers will choose a replacement Mayor. Mr. Garcetti is ineligible to seek a third term in 2022, so the race to replace him is already underway. The Council has almost no criteria to follow in terms of who they choose as interim Mayor, but it is unlikely the members will install one of the candidates currently campaigning for the position. Such would potentially award that individual an unfair advantage.

New York City: Riding a recent New York Times endorsement, former city sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia has vaulted into a tie for second place in the upcoming open Mayor’s primary with former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, but both trail Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams in the June 22nd ranked choice Democratic primary. 

The Core Decision Analytics poll conducted for the Fontas Advisors organization and not affiliated with any candidate (released 5/26; 5/15-19; 800 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds Mr. Adams leading with 18%, while Mr. Yang and now Ms. Garcia trail with 13%, apiece. No other candidate reaches 10% support. The ranked choice simulation again shows Mr. Adams prevailing after several rounds of counting. Under this system, certain voters second and third, and perhaps further choices are counted until one candidate receives majority support.