This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Key Takeaways

• GA-Sen: Herschel Walker (R) Slightly Expands Lead
• UT-Sen: Dems May Ditch Dem in Favor of Independent
• MI-11: New Poll Sees Reps. Stevens (D) and Levin (D) Tied at 36%
• Redistricting: SCOTUS Rejects GOP; Gov Vetoes LA Map
• GA-Gov: Gov. Kemp Leads, but only near 50% in Primary
• PA-Gov: Ex-Rep. Barletta (R) With Small Lead in Underdog Race

Senate

Georgia: Blueprint Polling, a Democratic survey research firm, released their new Georgia statewide study, a result that stakes GOP candidate Herschel Walker to his largest lead of the early election cycle. Mr. Walker’s edge, however, is only three-plus percentage points. The Blueprint survey (3/2-8; 662 GA definite (90%) and probable (10%) voters; live interview) projects Mr. Walker to a 48.5 - 45.4% edge over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D).   

Perhaps the poll’s most interesting result, however, pertains to the question about who the respondents would support in a presidential re-match. This universe retorted that they would back former President Trump with a 50-36% margin. President Biden carried the controversial Georgia result by 11,779 votes in 2020. 

Ohio: A new Fox News Ohio poll (3/2-6; 918 OH likely Republican primary voters; live interview) again posts businessman Mike Gibbons to a small lead in the GOP Senate primary. According to the surveyors, Mr. Gibbons holds a 22-20-11-9-7% edge over former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, the 2012 US Senate nominee, author J.D. Vance, ex-Ohio State Republican Party chair Jane Timken, and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), respectively. The Ohio primary is May 3rd. US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) is the clear Democratic primary leader.

Pennsylvania: Fox News tested the Pennsylvania statewide races (3/2-6; 960 PA likely Republican primary voters; live interview) and, like the TargetPoint Consulting Republican primary survey released last week, sees former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick putting a clear distance between he and Dr. Mehmet Oz. The ballot test yielded Mr. McCormick a 24-15% advantage with no other candidate reaching double-digits. The others, however, in particular ex-Lt. Governor nominee Jeff Bartos and former US Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands, still remain within striking distance.

Utah: Despite former Obama State Department official Kael Weston filing in the Democratic Senate primary, there may be a move to deny him an endorsement at the Utah State Democratic Party convention. Not obtaining the requisite number of delegate votes to win a ballot placement would force Mr. Weston to enter the primary through the difficult signature gathering process. Many believe the party’s best strategy would be to unite behind Independent former presidential candidate Evan McMullin who looks to have much stronger appeal against incumbent Sen. Mike Lee (R) than Mr. Weston. The Utah state Democratic convention is scheduled for April 23rd. The state primary is June 28th.

House

CA-41: Republican state Senator Melissa Melendez (R-Murrieta) announced yesterday that she is ending her campaign for Lt. Governor, and switching to challenge veteran US Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) in the state’s new 41st CD. 

Ms. Melendez was elected to the California Senate in a 2020 special election, after winning five elections to the state Assembly. Rep. Calvert was first elected in 1992, and currently represents 74% of the new 41st. Because of California’s jungle primary structure, members of the same party can advance into the general election, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that both Rep. Calvert and Sen. Melendez could participate in a double Republican general election.

MI-10: Former Macomb County Judge and ex-prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D) announced that he will enter the Democratic primary in the new 10th District, which will play as a toss-up seat in the general election. Early polling suggests Mr. Marlinga is already the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination.

Though the FiveThirtyEight organization rates the District as R+6, Dave’s Redistricting App finds the Democrats having a slight edge on the composite scale, 49.4 - 47.8%. The eventual Republican nominee will likely be 2018 and 2020 US Senate nominee John James. This will be one of the national House races to watch on election night.

MI-11: Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Rochester Hills) and Andy Levin (D-Bloomfield Township) are again tied in a new poll. The two are paired in the new 11th District where carryover constituent territory favors Rep. Stevens, 46-27%, but all of Rep. Levin’s local political base is in the new seat as opposed to none from Ms. Stevens’ home area in Rochester Hills. 

Lake Research Partners released their mid-February survey (2/15-20; 500 MI-11 likely Democratic primary voters) that pegs the two House members even at 36%. This largely confirms the previous published poll from Target Insyght (2/1-3; 400 MI-11 likely Democratic primary voters) that found the two tied at 41%. The Michigan primary is August 2nd, so much time remains for this race to define itself.

MN-5: Controversial Democratic Socialist Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) has drawn a notable Democratic primary opponent. Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels filed a committee with the Federal Election Commission to challenge the two-term House member. The candidate filing deadline is May 31st for the August 9th primary, so Mr. Samuels has time to test the political waters to determine if Rep. Omar is vulnerable to a nomination challenge before filing official papers.

NY-24: Attorney Todd Aldinger, who had launched a Republican primary challenge to Rep. Chris Jacobs (R-Orchard Park) in New York’s newly-configured 24th District, one of only four strongly Republican districts in the state, this week ended his political pursuit. Mr. Aldinger said he was unable to generate the necessary early support to wage a viable primary campaign against a sitting incumbent, even one that contains only 55% of the Congressman’s current 27th district. Remaining in the GOP primary race are US Intelligence analyst Andrew McCarthy, and software engineer John Murtari. Rep. Jacobs is favored in both the primary and general election from a district that the FiveThirtyEight statistical projection organization rates R+25.

 Redistricting: Both the state court approved North Carolina and Pennsylvania congressional maps will be in place for the current election cycle, because six justices of the United States Supreme Court refused to hear a Republican motion to strike the plans down as not fully adhering to the US Constitution. This means the Democratic advantage gained through the courts will stand at least for this midterm election. Legislatures have the right to adopt permanent maps to replace the court plans, which are interim in nature, possibly in the legislative session beginning next year.

Saying another majority black seat could be created in Louisiana, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) vetoed the Republican legislature’s bill that made few changes in the state’s 6R-1D congressional map. The measure now returns to the legislature for an attempted veto override. Republicans were just short of two-thirds approval when they passed the bill, so they will have to convince the outstanding party members to support the measure. Odds are against the leadership succeeding, however. The last time the Louisiana legislature voted to override any gubernatorial veto came in 1993.