This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Key Takeaways

• AL-Sen: Rep. Mo Brooks Falls Well Behind in Primary Poll
• OK-Sen: One Democrat In; One Republican Out
• FL-15: Ex-Florida Rep. Dennis Ross (R) to Return in New Seat
• MI-4: Trump Endorses Rep. Bill Huizenga in GOP Pairing
• NV-Gov: Sheriff Joe Lombardo Tops Ex-Sen. Dean Heller in R Primary
• States: Court Moves Maryland Primary to July 19th

Senate

Alabama: A new McLaughlin & Associates poll (3/10-13; 500 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds a new leader in the Senate race and suggests the original favorite may not even qualify for a runoff. The McLaughlin ballot test projects Black Hawk down pilot and Alabama defense business owner Mike Durant leading former Business Council of Alabama President & CEO Katie Britt, 34-32%, with US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville), who carries former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, falling to just 18% support. The Alabama primary is May 24th. If no one reaches the 50% plateau, the top two finishers will advance to a June 21st runoff election. 

Missouri: Many Republican leaders have been expressing fear that should resigned Governor Eric Greitens win the party’s open US Senate nomination the general election could be lost. Mr. Greitens left the Governor’s office in 2018 because of legal charges and an extra-marital affair. The charges were later dropped due to prosecutorial misconduct, but there was clear evidence of the affair. 

A new Trafalgar Group survey (3/9-13; 1,075 MO likely Republican primary voters; live interview, interactive voice response, online, and text) gives credence to the previous analysis. Paired individually with two Democrats, Mr. Greitens only ties former state Sen. Scott Sifton, 45-45%, and holds the smallest of leads, 46-45%, over Iraq/Afghan War veteran Lucas Kunce. 

Yet, US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia) would defeat Sifton, 57-37%, and Kunce, 56-39%. Attorney General Eric Schmitt (R) would also easily top the two Democrats (Sifton: 54-40%; Kunce: 55-40%). Earlier, in their 2/22-24 Republican primary poll, Trafalgar posted Mr. Greitens to a 31-23-17% Republican primary lead over Mr. Schmitt and Rep. Hartzler, respectively. Incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is not seeking a third term.

North Carolina: After two released February North Carolina Republican US Senate polls found former Gov. Pat McCrory opening up an 11-point lead over US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) in the open Senate race, a new Meeting Street Insights survey (2/26-3/1; 500 NC likely Republican primary voters; live interview) shows the race in much closer territory. The MSI results project Mr. McCrory’s lead to be a tighter 31-25%. 

The North Carolina primary is May 17th. Sen. Richard Burr (R) is not seeking a fourth term. Mr. McCrory was elected Governor in 2012, but defeated for re-election in 2016. Rep. Budd, who earned former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, was elected to the state’s 13th Congressional District in 2016.

Oklahoma Special: Former US Rep. Kendra Horn (D), who represented the Oklahoma City district for one term before losing in 2020 to current Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City), announced that she will enter the special US Senate election to replace resigning Sen. Jim Inhofe (R). The move is a curious one in that Oklahoma is strongly Republican and should be even more so in what most observers and analysts feel will be a favorable GOP political climate this November. Ms. Horn certainly gives the Democrats a credible standard bearer and will likely become a consensus candidate for the party nomination. Her chances for a general election victory, however, are slim.

House

CA-41: After California state Senator Melissa Melendez (R-Lake Elsinore) opened a Lt. Governor campaign committee but chose not pursue the race only to announce against US Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona), she again did an about face just as candidate filing closed. Sen. Melendez did not enter the congressional race, meaning Rep. Calvert dodges what could have been a strong challenge. Four candidates are on the ballot against him, the most viable being Democratic former federal prosecutor Will Rollins. Rep. Calvert is favored to win a 16th term in November.

FL-15: Saying that, “seeing what's happened in the last few years has just forced me to get off the sidelines and get back in the game…” former four-term US Rep. Dennis Ross (R), as quoted in the Daily Kos Elections site, indicated that he will again file for Congress in what is expected to be a new open seat. The proposed map that passed the legislature features an open district containing much of the area east of Tampa that Mr. Ross previously represented. 

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has threatened to veto the congressional map, so redistricting is not yet complete. Most of the prospective congressional map versions, including the plan that awaits the Governor’s action, features an open seat in the Hillsborough County area so the chances of seeing such a district in the eventual final map are high. Florida gained one seat in national reapportionment bringing the delegation size to 28 districts. 

FL-20: The special 2021 Democratic primary election that saw current Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar) winning by just five votes will likely host a re-match only between the new Congresswoman and her closest previous challenger. Former Broward County Commissioner Barbara Sharief (D), who originally indicated she would return to again run for Congress, is now saying that she will more likely challenge state Senate Minority Leader Lauren Book (D-Plantation). Former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, who finished just five votes behind the primary winner, has already announced that he will contest the new incumbent for re-nomination in the August 23rd Democratic primary.

ME-2: Major party candidate filing concluded Tuesday and Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is unopposed for re-nomination. Former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) is returning for a re-match of their 2018 campaign, a battle that Mr. Golden won through Ranked Choice Voting despite finishing behind Mr. Poliquin in the regular election. The former Congressman faces only Caratunk First Selectman Liz Caruso in the Republican primary. Caratunk is a northern Maine town of just 69 people. 

The Minor Party & Independent candidate filing deadline is not until July 6th. At that point we will see how many other candidates will be on the ballot and could again force the election into the Ranked Choice Counting method. If no candidate receives 50% in an election, the ranked selection counting process begins once the election has concluded. Voters rank their selections when casting their ballot in the regular election. 

The system can only be used in Maine’s federal elections and party primaries. The state Supreme Court ruled the Maine constitution recognizes plurality election victories, but claims it has no jurisdiction over federal or party primary contests.

MI-4: Earlier in the week, former President Donald Trump extended his congressional endorsement to Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) in his Republican primary battle against Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). Following Trump’s declaration, his pre-redistricting endorsed candidate, state Rep. Steve Carra (R-Kalamazoo), announced that he is exiting the congressional race and will seek re-election to the state House. 

Like in the other districts of Republican incumbents who voted for the Trump impeachment, the former President is actively campaigning for their defeat. Rep. Upton is one of the ten GOP members who voted to remove him in the final days of his term. Because Michigan lost a congressional seat in national reapportionment, Reps. Huizenga and Upton were paired in a new southwestern Michigan 4th CD. Though he has already been running media ads, Rep. Upton still maintains he has not yet fully decided to seek re-election. The candidate filing deadline is April 19th for the August 2nd primary.

MN-1: Candidate filing also closed for the special election to replace the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester) who passed away on February 17th. A total of ten Republicans, eight Democrats, and two minor party candidates filed for the May 24th special primary election. 

Among the ten Republicans are the candidate’s widow, former Minnesota Republican Party chair Jennifer Carnahan, and state Reps. Jeremy Munson (R-Lake Crystal) and Nels Pierson (R-Rochester), along with former state Rep. Brad Finstad. Ex-White House Counsel Richard Painter leads the Democratic contingent. Democrat Dan Feehan, who ran two close elections against Mr. Hagedorn, chose not to enter the special election.

On the Republican side, it was originally expected that US Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) would join the Senate field, but such will not be the case. This week, the Congressman announced that he would seek re-election. The Senate field is crowded and Rep. Hern would have to risk his safe House seat and position on the Ways & Means Committee, a point he made last week when hedging about whether he would join the Senate special election contenders.